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  3. 2016 - Volume 18 [Issue 4]
  4. Original Research Article

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A Simple Method to Forecast Future Bed Requirements: A Pragmatic Alternative to Queuing Theory

  • Neeraj Beeknoo
  • Rodney P. Jones

Journal of Advances in Medicine and Medical Research, Page 1-20
DOI: 10.9734/BJMMR/2016/29518
Published: 17 October 2016

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Abstract


Aims: To review the current state of hospital bed planning, and to develop a simple tool to estimate short-term future bed requirements using historical bed occupancy data.


Study Design: Analysis of daily bed occupancy between January 2008 and October 2015. Synthesis of trends into a method for forecasting bed numbers for each day of the year.


Place and Duration of Study: Daily occupied bed statistics for King’s College University Hospital, a large London Teaching Hospital having 1,600 beds.


Methodology: An eight-year time-series of daily midnight bed occupancy covering elective, emergency and transfer admissions has been used to estimate the number of beds required to deliver a delay-free hospital.


Results: In this large 1,600 bed hospital it is estimated that 100 extra beds (a 6.3% increase) are required to deliver delay free admissions, i.e. no delays to admission from the emergency department or delays due to cancelled elective operations.


Conclusion: The analysis reveals that far higher flexibility is required in staffing levels than is currently available. Potential strategies are discussed to address this issue.


Keywords:
  • Hospital bed modelling
  • optimum occupancy
  • trend analysis
  • health policy
  • queuing theory
  • delay to admission
  • staffing
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How to Cite

BeeknooN., & JonesR. P. (2016). A Simple Method to Forecast Future Bed Requirements: A Pragmatic Alternative to Queuing Theory. Journal of Advances in Medicine and Medical Research, 18(4), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.9734/BJMMR/2016/29518
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